• Employment rises amid further accumulation of outstanding business 
• Output price inflation at three month high 

Growth of business activity picked up alongside a further solid increase in new orders, while companies continued to take on extra staff. Meanwhile, input cost inflation remained marked and output prices increased at the fastest pace in three months. The headline Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the monthon-month change in the combined output of the region’s private sector – increased to a four-month high of 56.0 in September from 55.7 in August. The sharp expansion was also the fastest of the 12 monitored UK regions and nations. Where output rose, this was mainly linked to higher new orders. The manufacturing and services sectors posted the strongest increases in activity in September. Construction activity was also up, but retail recorded a decline.

Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, commented: 

“The Northern Ireland private sector completed a full quarter leading the pack in terms of output growth in September, an impressive feat for an economy that this time last year was struggling deep in contraction territory. “Central to the rejuvenation of the private sector has been the success firms have had in securing new orders, and this continued in September, albeit with the pace of growth easing to a seven-month low. “Companies continued to hire additional staff to try and deal with the influx of new work, but further reports from respondents of difficulties finding suitably skilled staff in the local labour market meant that backlogs of work accumulated again. While unlikely to be a shortterm fix, any efforts to help upskill the local workforce would give firms a better chance of getting work completed on time and keeping customers happy. Perhaps linked in some part to staff shortages, wage pressures were again the key factor behind a further sharp rise in firms' costs. “Behind the generally positive story across the private sector, evidence of a two-speed economy has emerged. Growth continued to be driven by manufacturing and services, while the picture was much more muted in construction and retail. “For now, the private sector seems in a good position to finish off the year with a flourish.”

Please see the regional report in full:

Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Growth Tracker (PDF, 984KB)