- Solid increase in new business
- Fastest rise in output of all UK regions and nations
- Solid increases in new orders and employment
- Cost inflation at 15-month low
Business activity again rose at the fastest pace of all UK regions and nations, while there were further solid increases in new orders and employment. Rates of inflation softened during the month, with input costs rising at the slowest pace since July 2023. The headline Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s private sector – posted 55.8 in October, down slightly from 56.0 in September, but still pointing to a rapid monthly expansion in output in the private sector as sales volumes improved. For the first time in four months, all four broad sectors posted increases in activity as retail saw a renewed expansion. The strongest rise was recorded in services, where growth hit a 40-month high.
Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, commented:
"After an impressive third quarter of the year, the Northern Ireland private sector started the final quarter in a similar vein, recording rapid growth of business activity on the back of solid increases in new orders. Northern Ireland remained a standout performer across the UK, posting the fastest increases in output and employment. The latter rose solidly, despite ongoing reports from firms of difficulties recruiting staff amid a shortage of suitable candidates. Candidate shortages meant that wage pressures remained an issue for companies, but overall input costs increased at the slowest pace for 15 months. The good news on inflation was also seen with regards to selling prices, which increased at the softest pace since January. Despite the continued growth in the private sector, business sentiment dropped to the weakest in the yearto-date. The survey was conducted prior to the Budget and so we'll be able to see next month what impact, if any, the changes to taxation and spending have on local company confidence. Looking at the sector breakdowns of the latest figures, it was positive to see all four categories recording increases in output, but retailers generally remained under pressure, posting reductions in new orders and employment and expressing pessimism for the outlook, not a great position to be in heading towards the all-important festive period."
Please see the regional report in full:
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Growth Tracker (PDF, 1,406KB)
