• Solid increase in new business
• New orders fall for first time since end of 2023
• Business confidence down sharply
• Cost inflation at 15-month low
• Sharpest rise in output prices for 18 months

Output rose modestly, while new orders decreased and business confidence waned. Meanwhile, output prices rose at the fastest pace for a year-and-a-half amid increased staff costs. The headline Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the monthon-month change in the combined output of the region’s private sector – remained above the 50.0 nochange mark in November to signal continued output growth in the Northern Ireland private sector. That said, the reading was down to 51.5 from 55.8 in October, pointing to a much softer rate of expansion and one that was the weakest since January. Services activity continued to rise strongly, with manufacturing production also up. Meanwhile, activity fell in the construction and retail sectors

Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, commented:

"Although output in Northern Ireland's private sector continued to rise in November, the latest data brought the first signs that the recent spell of buoyant growth may be coming to an end. Output rose at the slowest pace since the opening month of the year as firms struggled to secure new orders. In fact, new business decreased in November, with the sharpest fall seen in the retail sector, a gloomy sign of muted underlying demand conditions heading into the allimportant festive period. Last month we said that the November data would give us the first insight into the impact of the UK Budget on firms, and on an initial look the main effect has been to dampen business confidence, with overall sentiment the lowest in just over a year. Companies continued to hire additional staff, but the rate of job creation slowed, perhaps reflecting concerns around the impact that hiring is having on costs given that firms mainly linked inflationary pressures to staff pay. Meanwhile, the rise in selling prices in Northern Ireland was the sharpest across the UK. With the private sector's performance losing some of its shine in November, the coming months will be key in determining whether we are seeing a temporary soft-patch or the start of a more worrying downturn."

Please see the regional report in full:

Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Growth Tracker (PDF, 873KB)