- Renewed reduction in output amid lower new orders
- Employment continues to rise
- Cost inflation at six-month high
Latest Regional Growth Tracker data from Ulster Bank signalled a renewed contraction in business activity at companies in Northern Ireland. The reduction in output was in response to a further fall in new orders, although firms continued to increase employment. Meanwhile, input costs rose at a faster pace but charge inflation softened. The headline Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s private sector – dropped to 47.7 in December from 51.5 in November. The reading signalled a first reduction in business activity for 13 months, and one that was the most pronounced since October 2023. Firms generally linked lower output to waning customer demand. The overall reduction was driven by declines in the retail and construction sectors. On the other hand, manufacturing and services saw further increases in activity.
Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, commented: ““The Northern Ireland private sector ended 2024 on a softer note, recording the first reduction in business activity for more than a year on the back of a further decline in new orders. This represented a marked turnaround in fortunes for local firms as rapid growth was recorded through much of 2024, even through to as late as October, when Northern Ireland was the strongest performer across the UK.
“The labour market remained positive with employment continuing to increase despite the reductions in output and new orders. In fact, Northern Ireland was the only part of the UK to see a rise in staffing levels.”
Please see the regional report in full:
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Growth Tracker (PDF, 873KB)
