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Economics

Ulster Bank Regional Growth Tracker report for August 2024

Activity rises at faster pace.

Key findings

  • New orders up for eighth month running
  • Backlogs of work accumulate despite marked job creation
  • Cost inflation eases

 

The headline Business Activity Index – a seasonally adjusted index that measures the month-on-month change in the combined output of the region’s private sector – rose to 55.7 in August, up from 54.9 in July and pointed to a rapid monthly increase in business activity in Northern Ireland. Output has now risen in each of the past nine months. Companies indicated that rising workloads had been behind the latest expansion of activity. Manufacturing production increased at the fastest pace in almost two and-a-half years, with services activity also up sharply.

Sebastian Burnside, NatWest Chief Economist, commented:

“There was no sign of a let-up in the performance of the Northern Ireland private sector in August, with local firms continuing to outpace all other UK regions and nations in terms of output growth. “The sustained spell of growth has encouraged firms to take on extra staff, and they did so to the largest degree since April 2023. Such has been the speed of the inflows of new business, however, that companies were unable to make any dent in their backlogs of work which continued to expand markedly. “The Northern Ireland manufacturing sector performed particularly strongly in August, posting sharper increases in production, new orders, employment and backlogs of work. Services was not far behind, but there was less positive news in the retail sector where sales moved into reverse. “Hiring across the private sector pushed up staff costs, while salaries for existing workers were also reportedly up. This meant that input prices increased sharply again, and to the largest extent seen across the UK. “One other thing to note was a first increase in new export orders in almost a year-and-a-half, in a sign that international sales are starting to join the party and provide a boost to overall growth. “Local firms remained optimistic about the future, and looking at this set of data it's not hard to see why.”

 

Please see the regional report in full:

Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Growth Tracker (PDF, 984KB)

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